A funny thing happened on the way to the double dip drop in real estate values supposedly predicated by a wave of foreclosures set to hit the market: there is now greater buyer demand than available houses in almost every price range and product, inventory has declined precipitously, and housing prices are increasing. Well not really very funny if you are trying to buy real estate in Los Angeles or Orange County or are an agent who represents buyers (me).
Over the past few weeks, every offer I have submitted has been one of many multiples and unless buyers are really willing to step up, and that means more than just price, they aren't likely to see their offer go very far. And, if they do not do so within the first few days that a property is listed for sale, it will be too late.
I have taken to having buyers come with me to Broker's Open Houses, (and I'm not the only one), working my network group for pocket listings and restarting my "off market" pipeline.
So, as we enter a new era of real estate madness, and let's hope not a bubble, here's some things to look out for.
MULTIPLE OFFERS
A very legitimate pricing strategy for sellers these days is to list a property just low enough so as to get mutiple offers the first week and then sell for a purchase price ABOVE the list price in the MLS. This practice has been used extensivley by REO listing agents over the past few years and is used implicitly if not explicitly by short sale listing agents. It's not a bad idea but requires buyers to change their mindset from how much off the list price can they get (buyer's market) to how high over list price can they go (seller's market).
I expect this trend to continue at least for the next few months so get used to multiple counters and here's what you need to know.
When a seller is responding to more than one offer, the listing agent will check off the multiple offer box on the counter offer form. The first thing buyers need to know is that even if you sign the counter offer exactly as it is written, the seller does not have to accept your offer. (If it is not a multiple counter offer, just a normal vounter, than yes they do have to accept.)
These days, as a buyer you are just as likely to be countered on terms as on price. One of the ways that buying real estate is unique is that the negotiation is two dimensional - both price and terms.
One of the most frustrating counters buying receive in a multi offer situation is the request for your "best and final" price. Hmnn. Does that mean that you are bidding against yourself? Basically, yes.
So, how do you determine what your best and final price offer should be?
Well unless you are paying all cash, an offer above what the property will appraise for is not the best idea. Other than that, what are you likely to pay for a similar property in a competitive situation is the only way to approach setting a value. Yes, we can start with price per sq ft and then add or subtract for amenities and condition, lot size and other factors but at the end of the day how much is that piece of real estate worth to you based on current market conditions. And in Real Estate all we can count on is the current market condition.
So, my advice for buyers in a multiple offer situation is forget what the list price is (was) and determine what the property might sell for based on what else is available, absorption rate, and the absolute most recent sale and listings.
The good news is that I've been able to secure homes for my clients in multiple offer situations even when the client was NOT the highest bidder. Here's why: Terms.
WAIVING CONTINGENCIES
This is not a practice that I recommend or like but in the multiple offer environment that we are currently in, listing agents have asked buyers to waive inspection and even appraisal contingencies. Appraisals? Really?
The defauly contingencies are in the contract for a reason: they protect the buyer and allow for ample time during the escrow period for the buyer to do their investigations of the property, get an appraisal and have the loan underwrtitten.
Sometime over the last few months as the market has changed, I had a listing agent on a standard sale ask my buyer to waive their appraisal contingency. The listing agent was converned that with prices moving up so quickly that the property would not appraise. This particular agent was from out of the area and maybe was misreading the market at the time. But c'mon. The appraisal is a condition of the loan and stated as such in pre-approval letters.
Here's what happens when a buyer waives the appraisal contingency.
If the appraisal does not come in for the purchase price, in theory the buyer would have to make up the difference in any shortfal. Here;s an example.
The purchase price is $600,000 and the buyer is obtaining a 20% down loan. The appraisal comes in at $580,000. The buyer would have to make up the $20K difference out of pocket. So, if you have the funds, want the house, and can take the risk, maybe it's a good strategy. But not one I recommend.
Another common contingency that a seller may ask the buyer to waive is the inspection contingency. Unless you are buying a scraper or a property that you intend to do extensive repairs on, why would you waive this contingency? Beats me.
SHRINKING INVENTORY
The following chart shows Real Estate Activity for Redondo Beach over the last 14 months or so.
It doesn't take too much analytical skills to see that available homes for sale year over year are about half and that sales are up. That's why you can't find a home to buy and the ones that are for sale are selling for more. I could have done the same graphic for Manhattan Beach Real Estate, Hermosa Beach Real Estate, any Westside or Valley neighborhood or Orange County.
BANK OWNED FORECLOSURES
So, here's the trend lines for the foreclosure pipeline. This is all of LA County but it probably would not look any different for any smaller sample.
See that red line? Kind of like a flat line isn't it? More important though is that scheduled for sale and pre-foreclosure not really spiking.
CONCLUSIONS
Here's how this probably plays out.
Currently there is more buyer demand than available questions but the current buyer demand is probably unsustainable. Right now, sellers may be over playing their hand but as buyers start to not step up to the price increase and other demands, the balance will return to the market. Or alternately more sellers will place their homes on the market with the same outcome.
Be patient, hold on loosely, save up more down payment and be ready to act when the right home and situation presents itself.
